Another week of the 2021 NFL season and gone and with it came yet another banner week for underdogs. After posting a 10-4 mark against the spread in Week 9, underdogs went 9-5 ATS in Week 10. This included some results that were among the most surprising of the season.
The Buccaneers lost as 9.5-point favorites to a Washington squad that had previously won two games. The Ravens, favored by more than a touchdown, scored just 10 points as they were dominated by the Dolphins defense on “Thursday Night Football.” The Panthers rode PJ Walker and Cam Newton to a 24-point blowout of the Packers, and for the second consecutive week, the Rams were destroyed in prime-time, this time by the 49ers.
In any normal NFL season, bettors may look at these results and outright underdog wins and chalk them up to a weird week. However, these types of results have been commonplace in 2021, so savvy gamblers are going to pore over the latest NFL odds, trends and point spreads in an effort to find value and, potentially, the next big upset.
There are a few double-digit favorites this week, at least among the opening lines. The Buccaneers are favored by 11 over the Giants, the Titans are expected to beat the Texans by at least 10.5 and the Browns are expected to bounce back, as they’re favored by 10 points over the Lions.
Could one of these teams be the next double-digit favorite to fall? It’s unlikely, but that’s what most bettors have said every time this season. And every week, a new upset seems to join the pantheon of unexpected ones from this crazy season.
For more expert NFL predictions, check out Sporting News’ picks straight up and against the spread for Week 11.
WEEK 11 NFL PICKS: Against the spread | Straight up
NFL odds for Week 11
Below are the latest Week 11 NFL odds, including point spreads, money lines and over-under totals for every game, according to FanDuel Sportsbook.
Last updated: Saturday, Nov. 20.
NFL point spreads Week 11
|New England Patriots at Atlanta Falcons||NE -7|
|Detroit Lions at Cleveland Browns||CLE -12.5|
|San Francisco 49ers at Jacksonville Jaguars||SF -6.5|
|Indianapolis Colts at Buffalo Bills||BUF -7|
|Miami Dolphins at New York Jets||MIA -3.5|
|Washington Football Team at Carolina Panthers||CAR -3|
|Baltimore Ravens at Chicago Bears||BAL -6|
|New Orleans Saints at Philadelphia Eagles||PHI -2.5|
|Houston Texans at Tennessee Titans||TEN -10|
|Green Bay Packers at Minnesota Vikings||GB -1|
|Cincinnati Bengals at Las Vegas Raiders||CIN -1|
|Arizona Cardinals at Seattle Seahawks||ARI -1.5|
|Dallas Cowboys at Kansas City Chiefs||KC -2.5|
|Pittsburgh Steelers at Los Angeles Chargers||LAC -5|
|New York Giants at Tampa Bay Buccaneers||TB -10.5|
NFL money lines Week 11
|New England Patriots at Atlanta Falcons||NE -295|
|Detroit Lions at Cleveland Browns||CLE -600|
|San Francisco 49ers at Jacksonville Jaguars||SF -295|
|Indianapolis Colts at Buffalo Bills||BUF -320|
|Miami Dolphins at New York Jets||MIA -178|
|Washington Football Team at Carolina Panthers||CAR -164|
|Baltimore Ravens at Chicago Bears||BAL -255|
|New Orleans Saints at Philadelphia Eagles||PHI -146|
|Houston Texans at Tennessee Titans||TEN -450|
|Green Bay Packers at Minnesota Vikings||GB -118|
|Cincinnati Bengals at Las Vegas Raiders||CIN -126|
|Arizona Cardinals at Seattle Seahawks||ARI -124|
|Dallas Cowboys at Kansas City Chiefs||KC -136|
|Pittsburgh Steelers at Los Angeles Chargers||LAC -230|
|New York Giants at Tampa Bay Buccaneers||TB -550|
NFL over-unders Week 11
|New England Patriots at Atlanta Falcons||47.5|
|Detroit Lions at Cleveland Browns||42.5|
|San Francisco 49ers at Jacksonville Jaguars||45|
|Indianapolis Colts at Buffalo Bills||49.5|
|Miami Dolphins at New York Jets||44.5|
|Washington Football Team at Carolina Panthers||43|
|Baltimore Ravens at Chicago Bears||44.5|
|New Orleans Saints at Philadelphia Eagles||42.5|
|Houston Texans at Tennessee Titans||44.5|
|Green Bay Packers at Minnesota Vikings||47|
|Cincinnati Bengals at Las Vegas Raiders||50.5|
|Arizona Cardinals at Seattle Seahawks||47.5|
|Dallas Cowboys at Kansas City Chiefs||56|
|Pittsburgh Steelers at Los Angeles Chargers||47.5|
|New York Giants at Tampa Bay Buccaneers||49.5|
NFL POWER RANKINGS: Titans, Cowboys on the rise after Week 10
NFL best bets for Week 11
Seahawks (+2.5) vs. Cardinals
Fast forward to the beginning of the season for a minute. Can you imagine how you would react if the Seahawks were nearly field-goal underdogs at home before the season started? Obviously, the Cardinals have been better than expected, but it’s not like the Seahawks have been that much worse than many assumed.
Sure, Seattle’s record isn’t pretty. They’re sitting at 3-6 on the season and just got shut out by the Packers. That said, before Russell Wilson’s finger injury in Week 5, they had a 2-2 record. So, when Wilson has been on the field — and been healthy — the team has been solid.
I know what you’re thinking. But Wilson isn’t health right now… right? Well, Wilson returned from his finger injury two weeks ahead of the minimum expected timeline for return, so he may not be completely healthy. That said, it stands to reason that he’ll be healthier ahead of Seattle’s Week 11 game. It also helps his cause that he won’t be playing in weather as cold as what he faced in Green Bay on Sunday, when small snow flurries began falling late in the game.
So, this situation is better for Wilson. He’s also playing at home — where the Seahawks have one of the NFL’s best home-field advantages — and he has been elite in his career against the spread coming off a loss. Since Wilson entered the league in 2012, Seattle has posted a 32-14-3 record against the spread. That’s a cover percentage of 69.6, and is good for the best mark in the NFL during that span.
And Wilson himself is 36-10 straight up after a loss. So, he wins 78.3 percent of the time coming off a loss. All he has to do is win here to cover, so we like these odds.
Add in the fact that Kyler Murray is still questionable for this game and that Seattle has allowed an average of 15 points per game since rookie cornerback Tre Brown joined the lineup, and Seattle looks like one of the most appealing sides of the week.
Getting a +3 would be nice, but you can still bet this game without it, especially if Colt McCoy starts. Because with all due respect to McCoy, there’s absolutely no way that he should be favored on the road in Seattle.
Giants (+11) at Buccaneers
The Tom Brady-led Buccaneers are taking on the Giants. That should be an easy win for Tampa Bay, right? After all, Brady’s track record versus the Giants isn’t nearly as bad as most assume it is. Many remember his two Super Bowl losses at the hands of Eli Manning, but Brady is actually 5-1 in the regular season during his career against the Giants.
So, why should you pick the Giants to cover in this spot? It’s simple, really. They tend to give Brady trouble and keep games close.
In his eight games against the Giants, Brady has only ever won by double digits twice. He won by 11 back in 2003 and crushed Daniel Jones during his rookie season by 21. But more often than not, Brady would have failed to cover a double-digit point spread against the Giants.
The Buccaneers are better than the Giants are personnel-wise, but they have also struggled to cover the spread in recent weeks. They are only 3-6 ATS so far this season and have been particularly bad since Rob Gronkowski got hurt against the Rams. They are just 2-5 ATS since Gronkowski’s injury. He is questionable for Week 11, so his injury will be one to watch.
Meanwhile, the Giants are coming off a bye week and may get Saquon Barkley back healthy. That may not matter under normal circumstances against Tampa Bay’s stout, second-ranked run defense that allows 79.8 yards per game, but Vita Vea is dealing with an MCL injury. Vea ranks as the 14th-best interior defensive lineman in football, per PFF, and is a great run stuffer. Tampa Bay will miss him if he can’t play.
Between Vea’s absence and the Giants’ receivers getting healthier off a bye and going up against a weak secondary, this seems like a nice opportunity for the Giants to cover. They won’t win outright, but don’t be surprised if this is a three- or four-point game as it so often has been under Brady’s watch.
MORE: Looking back at LeBron James’ high school football career
Saints (+1.5) at Eagles
That’s right. None of our favorite picks this week are favorites. We’re riding the underdog wave! Of course, that puts us in position to be victimized by any potential regression to the mean regarding underdogs vs. favorites, but it’s a risk that we’re simply going to have to take.
The Saints-Eagles game may not look like an intriguing bet on paper. It’s pretty close to a pick ’em spread, but should it be? That’s the big question.
The Saints definitely aren’t the juggernaut that they were when Drew Brees was still playing (and playing at a high level) a few years ago. They do have a competent team, though, and they’re a strong, well-rounded squad that features a strong offensive line and Alvin Kamara on offense. And defensively, they have a great defensive line and one of the best cornerbacks in the game in Marshon Lattimore.
The defensive side of the ball is why we like the Saints here. The Eagles have been running like crazy over the last four weeks. They’re averaging a whopping 190.3 yards per game while passing for just 166 yards per game. That’s part of why they have played well and competitively over the last four games. They’re just 2-2 straight up and against the spread in that span, but they very nearly beat the Chargers in a tightly contested game.
All that’s to say, when the Eagles run the ball, they have a better chance of winning. In games that they have run the ball for 135 yards or fewer, they have a record of just 1-4 on the season. When they run for more than 135 yards, they have a record of 3-2.
Why does this matter so much? The Saints have the NFL’s No. 1 run defense and are allowing 72.9 yards per game. They have allowed more than 100 rushing yards just once all season. That came against Washington in Week 5, when six different players logged a carry for Washington.
If the Eagles can’t crack 100 rushing yards, they’re going to have a tough time winning here. Jalen Hurts has thrown well recently, but if the Eagles are rendered one-dimensional, that could put a bit too much pressure on him.
It’s also worth noting that the Saints lost as favorites in Hurts’ first career start last season. You best believe that Sean Payton has revenge on his mind, especially coming off a close, tough loss against the Titans.